Expecting Housing Surplus by 2017 – says Goldman Sachs

This is an excerpt from a news post published in Australian Financial Review - http://www.afr.com/real-estate/goldman-sachs-tips-housing-surplus-by-2017-20150416-1mm941

The one who predicted the current surge in housing activity, Tim Toohey - Goldman Sachs head of macro-research in Australia said – “Australia will have a housing surplus by 2017”.

He added - The challenge from 2017 onwards will be to "normalise interest rates" - in other words raise interest rates - just as underlying housing demand is weakening.

In a recent report of Goldman Sachs, Mr Toohey argued that - Australia's population growth is slowing, more than most us realise. By 2017, the population will be 530,000 less than estimated, based on widely used Australian Bureau of Statistics Series B projections.

The birth rate is at historic low, deaths are at historic highs and net migration is "falling fast." Instead of population growth of 1.7 - 1.8 per cent a year in 2015-17, the growth is more likely to be 1.25 per cent a year – as estimated by Mr Toohey. He strongly advocate and support household formation as a key driver of housing demand.

On the other hand, Mr Toohey estimated that - migration, which accounts for two thirds of the population growth since 2008, is falling faster than official estimates.

He wrote - "The primary determinant of net migration to Australia is not the number of illegal immigrants or the number of tourist arrivals, it is the relative strength of onshore versus offshore labour markets; so would you move to a country where you can't get a job?"

Earlier in 2012, Goldman Sachs upgraded its outlook for residential construction because of the emerging undersupply, the largest since the 1970s, as well as the need for a significant cut in interest rates Australia.

Today, Goldman Sachs has estimated, based on the ABS series B projection that - the current housing shortage would remain till the end of 2017 before deteriorating again with rising interest rates. In fact, the downturn is already happening. Goldman Sachs' proxy for net migration predicting just 160,000 extra people in 2014, which is 40,000 below the official figure for the first nine months.

Although, Sydney's rental prices are likely to climb up further before levelling out - according to Domain Group economist Andrew Wilson.